Development Trend and Forecast of New Energy Industry in the Next Three Years
Article label Article source: Combined cooling
The "2017-2021 China New Energy Industry Investment Analysis and Forecast Report" published by the Investment Adviser pointed out that in recent years, the global surge in renewable energy, especially wind energy, solar energy and fuel ethanol, has surged. The important feature of this new wave of investment is the large involvement of venture capital, as well as the active participation and promotion of many governments. There is a consensus is being formed: only in the new energy technology revolution in the front, it is possible in the future world economic pattern to occupy a dominant position.
In the development of new energy issues, the prevalence of a free economic theory in the past to support the view: the transformation of the energy system is a market process, you can rely on the price mechanism to guide the completion. That is, once the oil resources began to dry up, oil prices will respond, the attractiveness of new energy and thus improve, become a new goal of investment and development. The government intervention, can only interfere with the natural development of this process, increase the cost of energy system conversion.
Now more and more people see that changes in oil prices in a certain period of time by a variety of factors may not be able to reflect the long-term trend of oil supply. Especially in the early supply tightening, oil prices are more likely to fluctuate, rather than a straight line. For investors, the price of this information is chaotic. The reality is that the short-term decline in oil prices is easy to shake the enthusiasm of investors. In addition, speculative factors and the existence of the bubble, but also means that the capital market is often unstable, to the development of renewable energy to bring a lot of uncertainties.
In view of the new energy technology breakthroughs often need at least a few decades of continuous investment, to ensure that the project can be long-term and stable investment, government support and assistance is clearly indispensable.
The government should not only have the intention and plan to support the development of renewable energy, but also need to implement effective measures as soon as possible. One reason is that the development of new energy is still a long way to go. So far, almost every kind of renewable energy development is facing major technical obstacles, its own there are difficult to overcome the shortcomings. The results of the R & D work are still far from the real technology maturity and large-scale industrial applications. Early development, it means that there is more time to explore a wide range of different solutions, so that the conversion of the energy system as much as possible a gradual process to reduce the cost of change, reduce its shock and Impact.
Another reason is that the promotion of any new energy use, and even the transition of energy conversion, are related to the huge investment in supporting facilities, need to be included in the overall planning from the beginning. In fact, developing countries should incorporate the needs of new energy economies into infrastructure planning as early as possible: they have not yet established a full set of infrastructure for the oil economy, so there is more room for early adjustment, waste of investment, and avoidance in infrastructure Take unnecessary detours.
The provision of financial "subsidies" is the primary means by governments to support renewable energy companies. This support includes incentives to producers of new energy products and tax breaks, as well as incentives for product buyers to provide consumer subsidies and tax rebates and other incentives to encourage more people and businesses to try new energy products.
The main role of subsidies is to reduce the new and old energy products in the cost and price gap, thereby reducing the new energy products into the market and expand the market share of the main obstacles. This is to help new energy companies to expand production, the establishment of new energy industry to support the development of the market size is important.
But the subsidy means also flawed. In general, the provision of financial subsidies is inevitably affected by the following variables: the government's financial situation; the priority of policy objectives; people's interest in new energy and enthusiasm often change with oil prices. It is difficult to become a long-term commitment if the subsidy arrangement brings too much public expenditure. And the subsidy arrangement is too short, or intermittent, its promotion of new industry development effect will be limited. Taking the development of wind power in the United States as an example, since the end of the 20th century, the US wind industry has experienced three cycles: every two years ups and downs. The reason is that the tax concessions provided by the Government are reconsidered every year and are not conducive to coherent implementation.
In order to reduce the price gap between renewable energy and traditional energy, in addition to providing subsidies to the former, the government can also consider the implementation of the latter a "punishment", such as the collection of emission taxes, so that the traditional fuel environmental costs really revealed. The implementation of such policies may touch the interests of some industrial sectors, may also give consumers a certain price burden. But this approach may be more sustainable: do not increase the burden of public finances, the collection of fines can be used to promote the development of clean energy. It also helps to protect the environment and guide healthy energy consumption. In the long run, the government can at least combine these two approaches to reduce the excessive reliance on the "subsidy" means and enhance the effectiveness and stability of the policy.
In promoting the development of new energy, countries attach great importance to promote technological breakthroughs. This is very reasonable: the key to the promotion of new energy is to solve the energy efficiency and cost of the problem, which depends largely on technological innovation.
However, the emphasis on the importance of technological breakthroughs, the excessive concentration of policy resources into the selected R & D projects, may also lead to policy imbalance: ignore the market environment and competition mechanisms and other important conditions of the construction and cultivation, weaken the policy to promote the whole effect.